IT Platform for
Aerobiological Assessment of Risk from Wheat Stem Rust Ug99 Global
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Wheat rusts are an important group of airborne fungi that have had devastating impacts on North American agriculture in the past century. Currently, extensive monitoring and judicious deployment of a wide arsenal of management tools enable successful IPM for wheat and barley in our country. The emergence of Puccinia graminis tritici Race TTKS (Ug99) in Africa, a new race of wheat stem rust, threatens our country’s biosecurity. This invasive pathogen has recently spread to Asia and appears to have overcome resistance provided by gene Sr24. As a result, more than three quarters of the U.S. wheat and barely crops are now at risk. It is paramount that we prepare a coordinated response for the incursion of this fungus into the U.S. as was done for soybean rust. For this response to be successful, we must understand the aerobiology of this invasive pathogen and the cause and effect relationships between pending changes in the climate system and its life history and geographic distribution as well as those of its hosts.
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 Photo: Amor Yahyaoui |
 Photo: Amor Yahyaoui |
Scott Isard and Joe Russo (ZedX Inc) have proposed to collaborate with APHIS, ARS, and CSREES scientists to deliver two key components of the USDA effort to assess the worldwide spread of Ug99 and the risk of its incursion into North America: 1) Predictive modeling of aerial transport of wheat rust spores and disease development and 2) Development and operation of a web-based, near-real time platform for integration and synthesis of rust observations and model predictions. The geographic domain of the modeling component will center on east Africa and the Arabian Peninsula and include Africa, Middle East, Europe, and Southwest Asia, with expansion to other areas of the globe as observations of Ug99 warrant. The overall goal of the component is to provide advance warning and to guide monitoring and mitigation strategies for this potentially devastating pathogen. The modeling system and web-based IT platform will follow the template developed and deployed for soybean rust by the PSU/ZedX team. |
| Specific deliverables for these two project
components are: • Deliverable 1. Demarcation of wheat stem rust Ug99 source areas. Maps of areas infected by Ug99 in East Africa will be compiled from information provided by ongoing international surveillance and project partners. The color-coded maps will include information on known source areas for spores and unconfirmed but likely source areas. • Deliverable 2. Prediction maps of Ug99 spore dispersal from East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. This deliverable will focus on the creation of color landscape maps showing the locations and/or intensities of predicted spore deposition and the resulting disease progression for specified periods and geographic areas. The real-time simulations will allow for the tracking of the day-to-day transport of Ug99 from known source areas of inoculum. • Deliverable 3. Historical simulations using the aerobiology model and archived meteorological data to determine the likelihood of Ug99 spore transport to susceptible geographies. These simulations will also help identify types of atmospheric motion systems (such as monsoon winds) that will likely disperse Ug99 spores from East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. • Deliverable 4. International database of Ug99 observations. A System Query Language (SQL) database will be constructed to archive observations and output from model simulations. A database manager, who will be part of the ZedX team, will oversee the development of online forms for entering observations, quality control, and restricted access to data. The ZedX team will be responsible for developing and maintaining the database archive and monitoring access by project stakeholders. The near-real time aerobiology modeling component and the integration of observations and model predictions to provide advanced warning is highly dependent on the delivery of reliable data from ground monitoring. • Deliverable 5. Project web site. A project web site will provide stakeholders with information on the aerial dispersal of soybean rust. This site will be patterned after the USDA “soybean rust” pest information platform . The site will provide base documentation of Ug99 biology, Ug99 inoculum source area maps, and maps of the aerobiological simulations, including transport, survival, and deposition, and maps of local disease development, where feasible. |
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